{ "schema_version": "2.1", "generated_at": "2026-10-27T14:08:16.604789+00:00", "status": "scenario_estimates_published", "external_market_fetched_at": "2026-10-27T14:08:07.877430+00:00", "legal_posture": "informational data analysis; no endorsement or opposition", "candidate_counts": { "published_page": 90, "official_system": 90 }, "turnout_2026": { "estimated_eligible_electors_2026": 157462, "eligible_elector_growth_2018_to_2022_percent": 9.5, "historical_turnout_percent": { "2011": 23.74, "2014": 32.4, "2018": 36.86, "2022": 24.4 }, "scenarios": { "low": { "turnout_percent": 27.0, "projected_ballots_cast": 42515 }, "base": { "turnout_percent": 34.5, "projected_ballots_cast": 54324 }, "high": { "turnout_percent": 39.0, "projected_ballots_cast": 61410 } }, "method": "Eligible-elector base for 2026 is trend-extrapolated by compounding the City's own 2018-to-2022 back-calculated growth rate (ballots cast / official turnout %) forward one more 4-year cycle. Turnout-rate scenarios are reasoned brackets, not a statistical forecast: Low assumes participation stays near 2022's incumbent-dominated race; Base reverts to the 2014/2018 average from Richmond's last competitive mayoral races; High assumes the current open mayoral race drives turnout modestly above Richmond's historical maximum. See context_2026 in history.json for the open-seat driver and richmond_municipal_turnout_series for the source figures." }, "method": { "mayor": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has a historical mayoral result, so no flat-share vote scenario is computed for Mayor. External market win probability is displayed separately and is never converted into a vote count.", "council": "For each councillor/school trustee candidate with a historical municipal result, projected_votes_2026 scales that candidate's historical ballot-support rate to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario (low/base/high). This is a flat-share scenario, not a poll-based forecast: it assumes no change in the candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "turnout": "See turnout_2026.method for how the 2026 eligible-elector base and turnout-rate scenarios are derived.", "incumbency": "Retained as a future model feature; never inferred from the City API flag because it currently marks every record false.", "online_attention": "May adjust uncertainty only after symmetric candidate coverage. It cannot substitute for voter support.", "social_reach": "Mayor candidate cards show each candidate's Facebook/Instagram/X follower counts, weighted by which platforms Richmond's higher-turnout older voters actually use (see data/raw/social_reach.json). This is disclosed as context only - it is never combined into projected_votes_2026 or any vote-share figure. It also cannot capture the roughly half of Richmond's population whose primary language is Chinese and whose likely primary platform, WeChat, has no reliable Canadian usage estimate to weight; that gap is disclosed, not estimated.", "llm": "Used for source review and classification only; it does not generate votes, and it is never used to fill in a candidate that has no real data." }, "validation_flags": [ "The September 18 withdrawal deadline has passed; the City candidate page is the final current candidate universe.", "The City published page and official profile API are out of sync.", "Polymarket includes names outside the current City system and placeholder contracts; those rows are excluded.", "No representative Richmond voter poll has been ingested; projected_votes_2026 is a flat-share arithmetic scenario, not a poll-based prediction.", "Council support rates and mayor vote shares use different denominators and are never combined.", "Turnout-rate scenarios are reasoned brackets built from Richmond's own 2011-2022 range and the 2026 open-seat context, not a statistical model fit to polling data.", "Social reach (Facebook/Instagram/X) ranks mayoral candidates in close to the opposite order of the external market signal, and is disclosed as unreliable context rather than treated as a vote proxy; it is not refreshed by the automated daily job because the source platforms block programmatic access." ], "reference": { "municipal_2022_ballots_cast": 35093, "municipal_2022_turnout_percent": 24.4 }, "candidates": [ { "formal_name": "Alexa Loo", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 13485, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "bc-provincial-2020", "date": "2020-10-24", "district": "Richmond South Centre", "party": "Liberal", "votes": 6564, "valid_votes": 13307 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 13212, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "external_market_win_probability_percent": 0.0, "external_market_volume_usd": 9686.75, "social_reach_2026": { "facebook_followers": 168, "instagram_followers": 150, "x_followers": 3, "weighted_share_percent": 10.1, "manually_verified_at": "2026-09-06T00:00:00-07:00", "note": "Context only, not a vote-share input. See social_reach_2026 method notes: absolute counts are tiny relative to projected ballots, and the resulting ranking contradicts the external market signal." }, "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 69, "formal_name": "Alexa Loo", "office": "Mayor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 46, "ground_breadth": 70, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 22.83 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 4, "ece_base": 5.25, "share_percent": 23.0 }, "events": 33, "in_person_events": 14, "volunteer_canvass_events": 1, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 2.1, "RS": 3.48 }, "unlocated_ece": 17.25, "ece": { "low": 7.52, "base": 22.83, "high": 77.18 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.01, "base": 0.14, "high": 0.29 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.57, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc5F2qOgPzn/" }, { "platform": "facebook", "url": "https://facebook.com/RichmondStrongCanada" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcjRXUcI1Pq/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdHgMbxj8sh/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdExOCPpErD/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcmP54dSbTb/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Db_wD3nhIQs/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdA076nIXou/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc-FCPoIzfI/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DccEC1NklMh/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcXIAsLPc1c/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc-BgtpoX5t/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://instagram.com/richmondstrongcanada" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc4ML_4ov0P/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcPlw-sIWWz/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcrs8OXv5eP/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcKWkfcp7CH/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdHXjPcokif/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcFo4p_oAXq/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc1tE3YkpOa/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcZm57Ihg-Q/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc-HZrLo7zm/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc2ipSioETL/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcIAi0LIvEB/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcAKTtiGoLM/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://instagram.com/richmondstrongcanada" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcW3_cCyGBs/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DchICm9Sn7_/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdMTIjTlBBo/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcRsEW2S04V/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc7whAzo4kp/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdDEHFfpnA-/" }, { "platform": "facebook", "url": "https://www.facebook.com/RichmondStrongCanada" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 3, "accounts_accessible": 3, "accounts_scanned": 3, "posts_scanned": 33, "processed_media": 33, "terminal_blocked_media": 2, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-13", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-12", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Dennet \"The Cat Guy\" Lee", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 87, "formal_name": "Dennet \"The Cat Guy\" Lee", "office": "Mayor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 0, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 0.0 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 6, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.6, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcoVUE4p3ZH/" }, { "platform": "facebook", "url": "https://facebook.com/people/Dennet-Lee/511560470" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcEresDScag/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc_PQ19pYqm/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcUIrenSJBN/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdGDKTjpQXs/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 6, "processed_media": 6, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-15", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-09", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Dickens Cheung", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "bc-provincial-2024", "date": "2024-10-19", "district": "Richmond Centre", "party": "Independent", "votes": 556, "valid_votes": 16208 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "external_market_win_probability_percent": 0.0, "external_market_volume_usd": 7937.5, "social_reach_2026": { "facebook_followers": 904, "instagram_followers": 312, "x_followers": null, "weighted_share_percent": 44.0, "manually_verified_at": "2026-09-06T00:00:00-07:00", "note": "Context only, not a vote-share input. See social_reach_2026 method notes: absolute counts are tiny relative to projected ballots, and the resulting ranking contradicts the external market signal." }, "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 65, "formal_name": "Dickens Cheung", "office": "Mayor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 9, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 0.87 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 1, "ece_base": 0.84, "share_percent": 96.6 }, "events": 12, "in_person_events": 2, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.87, "ece": { "low": 0.45, "base": 0.87, "high": 4.96 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.01 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.59, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcRkxE7pGJf/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcmOwrSp24J/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcb5UmJJYoT/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc7wPyJTGvq/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcrgHLiJ__c/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcZJJ7ZJZ30/" }, { "platform": "facebook", "url": "https://facebook.com/ServantDickens" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcktzqKJs0J/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc8zYplJpph/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc_yfJovmjN/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcZ8MbrS5if/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcg4HV7Jh-N/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 12, "processed_media": 12, "terminal_blocked_media": 10, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-20", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-07", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Goldentiger King", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 99, "formal_name": "Goldentiger King", "office": "Mayor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Kash Heed", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 10563, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "external_market_win_probability_percent": 0.0, "external_market_volume_usd": 12459.27, "social_reach_2026": { "facebook_followers": 436, "instagram_followers": 169, "x_followers": 15, "weighted_share_percent": 21.8, "manually_verified_at": "2026-09-06T00:00:00-07:00", "note": "Context only, not a vote-share input. See social_reach_2026 method notes: absolute counts are tiny relative to projected ballots, and the resulting ranking contradicts the external market signal." }, "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 78, "formal_name": "Kash Heed", "office": "Mayor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 28, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 5.82 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 5, "ece_base": 4.74, "share_percent": 81.4 }, "events": 16, "in_person_events": 7, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 5.82, "ece": { "low": 3.12, "base": 5.82, "high": 21.3 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.03, "high": 0.06 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.51, "sources": [ { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/kashheed2026" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdMP_21ARM7/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcvu9eLjxfD/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcOX8RtFmc1/" }, { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/kashheed2026" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcjCwiRj6eW/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DccG2e5gnCp/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcLyBs9D6DV/" }, { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/kashheed2026" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcRGeudlhJC/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc3imKdG5-f/" }, { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/kashheed2026" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcgqxAdjOyh/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdAFSWfDqtO/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcepXNqkowj/" }, { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/kashheed2026" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 3, "accounts_accessible": 3, "accounts_scanned": 3, "posts_scanned": 16, "processed_media": 16, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-18", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-12", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Mei Kang", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "external_market_win_probability_percent": 0.0, "external_market_volume_usd": 912.65, "social_reach_2026": { "facebook_followers": null, "instagram_followers": 39, "x_followers": null, "weighted_share_percent": 0.8, "manually_verified_at": "2026-09-06T00:00:00-07:00", "note": "Context only, not a vote-share input. See social_reach_2026 method notes: absolute counts are tiny relative to projected ballots, and the resulting ranking contradicts the external market signal." }, "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 66, "formal_name": "Mei Kang", "office": "Mayor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 0, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 0.0 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 6, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.6, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dct6kVMSYEq/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc4Q1UzTVnT/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc4TJ7CEpCN/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc4r27ri7f3/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc4VQ8wSDWB/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdCVLBfiLng/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 6, "processed_media": 6, "terminal_blocked_media": 4, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-31", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-08", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "MEDIUM" } } }, { "formal_name": "Rob Howard", "office": "Mayor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No 2026 mayoral candidate has previously run for Richmond mayor, so there is no historical ballot-support rate to scale into a vote count. The external market win probability below is a separate, non-comparable signal and is never converted into a vote count.", "external_market_win_probability_percent": 100.0, "external_market_volume_usd": 22603.75, "social_reach_2026": { "facebook_followers": 358, "instagram_followers": 23, "x_followers": 759, "weighted_share_percent": 23.2, "manually_verified_at": "2026-09-06T00:00:00-07:00", "note": "Context only, not a vote-share input. See social_reach_2026 method notes: absolute counts are tiny relative to projected ballots, and the resulting ranking contradicts the external market signal." }, "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 54, "formal_name": "Rob Howard", "office": "Mayor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 4, "ground_breadth": 0, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 0.3 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 1, "ece_base": 0.3, "share_percent": 100.0 }, "events": 19, "in_person_events": 1, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.3 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 0.3, "base": 0.3, "high": 0.3 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.53, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc7BEmzEsTI/" }, { "platform": "facebook", "url": "https://facebook.com/robhowardformayor" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdHGgO6m2WX/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcv3ea0tT-S/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc9CZMcmuv7/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdMmfpitabD/" }, { "platform": "facebook", "url": "https://facebook.com/robhowardformayor" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdMjZOUNqtb/" }, { "platform": "facebook", "url": "https://facebook.com/robhowardformayor" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdMkOqFNuUv/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcv2LfStsMn/" }, { "platform": "facebook", "url": "https://www.facebook.com/reel/1044150405158919/" }, { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/robhoward55" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcWn0WjtzYB/" }, { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/robhoward55" }, { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/robhoward55" }, { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/robhoward55" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcv1bH5tU0Z/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcwCdQ7G19c/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 3, "accounts_accessible": 3, "accounts_scanned": 3, "posts_scanned": 19, "processed_media": 19, "terminal_blocked_media": 4, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-14", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-12", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Adam Dobrer", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 133, "formal_name": "Adam Dobrer", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Adil Awan", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 4197, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 4278, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 4197, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 12.0, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 5102, "base": 6519, "high": 7369 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Adil Awan's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (12.0%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 138, "formal_name": "Adil Awan", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Adnan Sarwar", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 116, "formal_name": "Adnan Sarwar", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Alan Lackstein", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 137, "formal_name": "Alan Lackstein", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Alex Sagert", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 72, "formal_name": "Alex Sagert", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 10, "ground_breadth": 0, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 1.05 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": 0.0 }, "events": 6, "in_person_events": 1, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 1.05, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 0.0, "base": 1.05, "high": 4.2 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.01, "high": 0.01 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.53, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcyvvHSiBz7/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcbu8cfD8T7/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Db_Pk3WDhHF/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcWJkQ5myne/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc5MPaWlKGs/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc7Zs5Mmrz7/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 3, "accounts_accessible": 3, "accounts_scanned": 3, "posts_scanned": 6, "processed_media": 6, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-13", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-05", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Alton Cheung", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 63, "formal_name": "Alton Cheung", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 37, "ground_breadth": 75, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 11.78 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 5, "ece_base": 8.4, "share_percent": 71.3 }, "events": 20, "in_person_events": 9, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 1.33, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 1.5 }, "unlocated_ece": 8.95, "ece": { "low": 6.08, "base": 11.78, "high": 34.4 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.06, "high": 0.12 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.47, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdKMz6BEmfo/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdFc5qVPfEW/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcNK5HXGyPU/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcCKGnVEjlT/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcb_uhEyCR1/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcw4ipnhHyw/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcUazLSPh03/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcesWB5jzM6/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdKRLvzSaHA/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcAw6RUv1cA/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcu_0L_Gz-M/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdCF5QYG9H0uKw3TYBstLSUPxDGVHMR7vYOdgw0/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdC8iMSGe3j/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcuj98DJ8Cc/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcl2qhLmy-O/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcZyI1ymSjj/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcPbXGcJQvy/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DckcjU0Jg9S/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcmbMuQkn2v/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc26uVsM8jc/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 20, "processed_media": 20, "terminal_blocked_media": 4, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-14", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-11", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "MEDIUM" } } }, { "formal_name": "Andrew Mrozowski", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 131, "formal_name": "Andrew Mrozowski", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Andy Hobbs", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 12760, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 12336, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 12760, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 36.4, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 15475, "base": 19774, "high": 22353 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Andy Hobbs's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (36.4%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 48, "formal_name": "Andy Hobbs", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 35, "ground_breadth": 62, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 10.05 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 2, "ece_base": 6.9, "share_percent": 68.7 }, "events": 16, "in_person_events": 7, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 1.26, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 3.03 }, "unlocated_ece": 5.76, "ece": { "low": 2.4, "base": 10.05, "high": 27.15 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.05, "high": 0.1 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.54, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Db1ldGDk8vm/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdJ8mxARFyC/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcsjTqcDYjy/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DczrDuUEX8E/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcSI6CukaEv/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcWVzijE34v/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcZfcfyjpM-/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Db3qgbVgTec/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcZ6ZpMnc4q/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Db_xevwiVJp/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcg3YazgHcG/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcFoMOngBUM/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DctqNIRgQKf/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Db1iWvTknSI/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcrDRtWippC/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc65d5HEtnY/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 1, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 16, "processed_media": 16, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-09", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-11", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "MEDIUM" } }, "baseline_votes_2026": { "low": 15475, "base": 19774, "high": 22353 }, "ground_integration_note": "Final scenario = baseline scenario + observed Ground Vote Uplift; Ground evidence is separately modelled and labelled provisional." }, { "formal_name": "Andy Z. Wang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 49, "formal_name": "Andy Z. Wang", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Antonio \"Tony\" Ortega", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 59, "formal_name": "Antonio \"Tony\" Ortega", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Bob Basanti", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 76, "formal_name": "Bob Basanti", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 28, "ground_breadth": 46, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 5.84 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 2, "ece_base": 5.32, "share_percent": 91.0 }, "events": 16, "in_person_events": 3, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 1.12, "RE": 4.72, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 1.68, "base": 5.84, "high": 20.07 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.03, "high": 0.06 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.63, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcPTd21vrrK/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcXIAsLPc1c/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcxINbyp5ko/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcEy9FPkuX_/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcc9jJmJ78V/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcsUSKxJSCl/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Db_iZeVyo7d/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcknkx7JPl1/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcVPJyXmxLr/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcKS1h0pzJI/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdAOhZ4v3gj/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcFgl3Apq_h/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcRYYFXJdzY/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdCplQVy24c/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc96Ljhpn7W/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc19WqBvfZ8/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 16, "processed_media": 16, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-13", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-08", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "MEDIUM" } } }, { "formal_name": "Carol Day", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 15737, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 20871, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 15737, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 44.8, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 19047, "base": 24337, "high": 27512 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Carol Day's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (44.8%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 123, "formal_name": "Carol Day", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 5, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Dale Bains", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 136, "formal_name": "Dale Bains", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Daniel Tsang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 115, "formal_name": "Daniel Tsang", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Dennis Page", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 3005, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 3478, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 3005, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 8.6, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 3656, "base": 4672, "high": 5281 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Dennis Page's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (8.6%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 134, "formal_name": "Dennis Page", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Donald Flintoff", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Mayor", "votes": 4204, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 124, "formal_name": "Donald Flintoff", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Edward He", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 70, "formal_name": "Edward He", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Eric Yung", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 7016, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 9559, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 7016, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 20.0, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 8503, "base": 10865, "high": 12282 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Eric Yung's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (20.0%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 90, "formal_name": "Eric Yung", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Gary Law", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 79, "formal_name": "Gary Law", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 40, "ground_breadth": 0, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 14.62 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 2, "ece_base": 14.62, "share_percent": 100.0 }, "events": 16, "in_person_events": 2, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 2.62, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 12.0, "ece": { "low": 9.0, "base": 14.62, "high": 31.12 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.12, "base": 0.25, "high": 0.51 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.58, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcDEl_-NcHj/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdCl0jBSLrW/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DckAMFYvx-x/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdFfr2QvPVy/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdIPZ2zt7Cd/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcXesESt2jY/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcsVjSDNbKr/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdIYRiZtexC/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": 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"browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "MEDIUM" } } }, { "formal_name": "Jenny Gonzales Mata", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 61, "formal_name": "Jenny Gonzales Mata", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, 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"platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc1Nnq4uY6w/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc7N8fvPWFk/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc_c6yXShPW/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcedQMByIny/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcIDhshzAgs/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DckUxosBrTj/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 1, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 14, "processed_media": 14, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-14", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-08", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Jizhou William Wang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 92, "formal_name": "Jizhou William Wang", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 16, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 1.95 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 1, "ece_base": 1.95, "share_percent": 100.0 }, "events": 2, "in_person_events": 1, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 1.95, "ece": { "low": 0.97, "base": 1.95, "high": 3.9 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.01, "high": 0.02 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.3, "sources": [ { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/jizhouwang2026/status/2098496811023638696" }, { "platform": "x", "url": "https://x.com/jizhouwang2026/status/2098902081830801502" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 1, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 2, "processed_media": 2, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-09-11", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-12", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Karen Novorr-Pezzuto", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 74, "formal_name": "Karen Novorr-Pezzuto", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Keefer Pelech", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "canada-federal-2025", "date": "2025-04-28", "district": "Richmond East—Steveston", "party": "New Democratic Party", "votes": 2251, "valid_votes": 53055 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 5993, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 5993, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 17.1, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 7270, "base": 9289, "high": 10501 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Keefer Pelech's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (17.1%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 77, "formal_name": "Keefer Pelech", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 16, "ground_breadth": 0, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 2.1 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": 0.0 }, "events": 10, "in_person_events": 2, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 1.05 }, "unlocated_ece": 1.05, "ece": { "low": 0.0, "base": 2.1, "high": 8.4 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.01, "high": 0.02 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.47, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcbyuu4Syn7/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcj2TlgEu1Q/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdHUn6khOwh/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc_mWEym6PN/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdCj7ymyd6e/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcmfgn0Gb58/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcZ-ThlSVdT/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcq_7tBBg4B/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcFkZT1PMXr/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc8Dt4AvPYV/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 10, "processed_media": 10, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-15", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-10", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } }, "baseline_votes_2026": { "low": 7270, "base": 9289, "high": 10501 }, "ground_integration_note": "Final scenario = baseline scenario + observed Ground Vote Uplift; Ground evidence is separately modelled and labelled provisional." }, { "formal_name": "Kenny Chiu", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "canada-federal-2021", "date": "2021-09-20", "district": "Steveston—Richmond East", "party": "Conservative", "votes": 13066, "valid_votes": 38949 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 81, "formal_name": "Kenny Chiu", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 3, "accounts_accessible": 3, "accounts_scanned": 3, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Kevin Lai", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 85, "formal_name": "Kevin Lai", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 0, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 0.0 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 1, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.6, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc_4e6cEosb/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 1, "processed_media": 1, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-09-07", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-07", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Kevin Lainchbury", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 84, "formal_name": "Kevin Lainchbury", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Laura Gillanders", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 10817, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "canada-federal-2021", "date": "2021-09-20", "district": "Richmond Centre", "party": "Green Party", "votes": 1109, "valid_votes": 34161 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 10817, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 30.8, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 13095, "base": 16732, "high": 18914 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Laura Gillanders's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (30.8%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 93, "formal_name": "Laura Gillanders", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 9, "ground_breadth": 0, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 0.88 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": 0.0 }, "events": 2, "in_person_events": 1, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.88 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.88, "high": 3.5 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.01 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.4, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcY_moqhP8j/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc_jgOxpOTe/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 3, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 2, "processed_media": 2, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-23", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-07", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "MEDIUM" } }, "baseline_votes_2026": { "low": 13095, "base": 16732, "high": 18914 }, "ground_integration_note": "Final scenario = baseline scenario + observed Ground Vote Uplift; Ground evidence is separately modelled and labelled provisional." }, { "formal_name": "Lisa Phillips", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 135, "formal_name": "Lisa Phillips", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Louis Huang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 71, "formal_name": "Louis Huang", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Mario Cruz", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 64, "formal_name": "Mario Cruz", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 7, "ground_breadth": 0, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 0.63 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": 0.0 }, "events": 1, "in_person_events": 1, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.63, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.63, "high": 3.15 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.01 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.6, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdIsGzYlKvS/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 1, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 1, "processed_media": 1, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-09-11", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-11", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Melissa Zhang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 5936, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 7078, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 5936, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 16.9, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 7185, "base": 9181, "high": 10378 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Melissa Zhang's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (16.9%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 56, "formal_name": "Melissa Zhang", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 1, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 14, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Michael Lok", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 62, "formal_name": "Michael Lok", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Michael Wolfe", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 12953, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 13627, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 12953, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 36.9, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 15688, "base": 20046, "high": 22660 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Michael Wolfe's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (36.9%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 53, "formal_name": "Michael Wolfe", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 0, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 0.0 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 1, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.6, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc6m34XzUy5/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 3, "accounts_accessible": 3, "accounts_scanned": 3, "posts_scanned": 1, "processed_media": 1, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-09-05", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-05", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } }, "baseline_votes_2026": { "low": 15688, "base": 20046, "high": 22660 }, "ground_integration_note": "Final scenario = baseline scenario + observed Ground Vote Uplift; Ground evidence is separately modelled and labelled provisional." }, { "formal_name": "Mike Gill", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 50, "formal_name": "Mike Gill", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 1, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Milan Kljajic", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 122, "formal_name": "Milan Kljajic", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Milly Yee", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 73, "formal_name": "Milly Yee", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 40, "ground_breadth": 67, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 14.4 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 3, "ece_base": 11.25, "share_percent": 78.1 }, "events": 16, "in_person_events": 6, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 1.05, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.53 }, "unlocated_ece": 12.82, "ece": { "low": 7.05, "base": 14.4, "high": 30.98 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.07, "base": 0.18, "high": 0.37 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.4, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcl9NxEFLQ2/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcNbKUFpmIs/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcLwJfUPWOn/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdAl1BHFBIB/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcrJlM6RX01/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcy262zkbmg/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcZ6sgilD4Q/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcU177HlJbK/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcO8IxAgRqw/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdA5iVAPEep/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DceZ8gwB4Rs/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcc3EKpPz8G/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcZAYjuxgjp/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdFWSLvB-M2/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc1MG6UETra/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcFNCZMmkim/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 16, "processed_media": 16, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-15", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-09", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Oday Brahem", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 125, "formal_name": "Oday Brahem", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Pak Hing (Ben) Lee", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 132, "formal_name": "Pak Hing (Ben) Lee", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Romeo Bicego", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 57, "formal_name": "Romeo Bicego", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 36, "ground_breadth": 0, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 11.3 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 1, "ece_base": 7.8, "share_percent": 69.0 }, "events": 7, "in_person_events": 3, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 11.3, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 3.9, "base": 11.3, "high": 29.6 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.06, "high": 0.11 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.51, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdHIciRpXgG/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdJ00VRpnlt/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdFfdwbjyWS/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc_g0FEBBXx/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdJ6oX8DYuO/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc68mlpy_G9/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc-BfY0Jzjx/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 7, "processed_media": 7, "terminal_blocked_media": 10, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-09-05", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-11", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Sam Wang", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 80, "formal_name": "Sam Wang", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 16, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 2.1 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 1, "ece_base": 2.1, "share_percent": 100.0 }, "events": 4, "in_person_events": 1, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 2.1, "ece": { "low": 1.05, "base": 2.1, "high": 4.2 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.01, "high": 0.02 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.45, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcJoR86is4k/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcpf5dMiX2k/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcpghJaNYq6/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc_2A5Jga_m/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 4, "processed_media": 4, "terminal_blocked_media": 2, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-22", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-07", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Sheldon Starrett", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "Councillor", "votes": 5573, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 5573, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 15.9, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 6760, "base": 8638, "high": 9764 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Sheldon Starrett's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (15.9%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 94, "formal_name": "Sheldon Starrett", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 25, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 4.5 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 1, "ece_base": 4.5, "share_percent": 100.0 }, "events": 3, "in_person_events": 1, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 4.5, "ece": { "low": 1.5, "base": 4.5, "high": 9.0 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.02, "high": 0.04 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.4, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdINa_UGsn1/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcwWx-tzAUo/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dce9jGGmDm_/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 3, "processed_media": 3, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-25", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-11", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "MEDIUM" } }, "baseline_votes_2026": { "low": 6760, "base": 8638, "high": 9764 }, "ground_integration_note": "Final scenario = baseline scenario + observed Ground Vote Uplift; Ground evidence is separately modelled and labelled provisional." }, { "formal_name": "Shelley Leonhardt", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 58, "formal_name": "Shelley Leonhardt", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 3, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 2, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "MEDIUM" } } }, { "formal_name": "Tamás Revóczi", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "bc-provincial-2024", "date": "2024-10-19", "district": "Richmond-Bridgeport", "party": "BC Green Party", "votes": 547, "valid_votes": 17027 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 88, "formal_name": "Tamás Revóczi", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 20, "ground_breadth": 0, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 2.95 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 2, "ece_base": 2.33, "share_percent": 78.7 }, "events": 8, "in_person_events": 4, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.31 }, "unlocated_ece": 2.64, "ece": { "low": 0.82, "base": 2.95, "high": 8.03 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.01, "high": 0.03 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.34, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcNV8N6Oy_5/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcdGaa5G-HB/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc4-iSgTqYW/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdBCxbOlJin/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcmpYaYCdKt/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcNUOEYlMZN/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdNOTr2j6K_/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcdHZWVm3wA/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 8, "processed_media": 8, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-18", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-12", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Thomas Leung", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 82, "formal_name": "Thomas Leung", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 48, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 27.0 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 3, "ece_base": 27.0, "share_percent": 100.0 }, "events": 6, "in_person_events": 3, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 27.0, "ece": { "low": 13.5, "base": 27.0, "high": 54.0 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.12, "base": 0.31, "high": 0.63 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.45, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdAGA3hEvOc/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdKwiNollz1/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc_nGYgBuRB/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc6d1cqmhB1/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdMkDJyGEzq/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc8ynhwGzrv/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 2, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 6, "processed_media": 6, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-09-05", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-12", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Tim Fan", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 91, "formal_name": "Tim Fan", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Vincent Li", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 121, "formal_name": "Vincent Li", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Wallace Pong", "office": "Councillor", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 114, "formal_name": "Wallace Pong", "office": "Councillor", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Aithan Kang", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 111, "formal_name": "Aithan Kang", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Alice Wong", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 13769, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "canada-federal-2021", "date": "2021-09-20", "district": "Richmond Centre", "party": "Conservative", "votes": 12668, "valid_votes": 34161 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 13769, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 39.2, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 16666, "base": 21295, "high": 24073 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Alice Wong's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (39.2%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 96, "formal_name": "Alice Wong", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Ausha Kang", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 112, "formal_name": "Ausha Kang", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Bill Mok", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 110, "formal_name": "Bill Mok", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Calvin Dang", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 106, "formal_name": "Calvin Dang", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Danny Chang", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 103, "formal_name": "Danny Chang", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "David Yang", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 12099, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 12099, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 34.5, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 14668, "base": 18742, "high": 21186 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds David Yang's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (34.5%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 113, "formal_name": "David Yang", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Dean Billings", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 7331, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 7331, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 20.9, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 8886, "base": 11354, "high": 12836 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Dean Billings's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (20.9%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 98, "formal_name": "Dean Billings", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 44, "ground_breadth": 0, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 20.24 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 4, "ece_base": 20.24, "share_percent": 100.0 }, "events": 5, "in_person_events": 4, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 3.15, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 17.09, "ece": { "low": 9.55, "base": 20.24, "high": 40.6 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.14, "base": 0.31, "high": 0.62 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.6, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcJnGnsGEpM/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcePs7ITUs3/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcURqWvknH5/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DczS4eQyOiE/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdAjl9JT2qa/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 3, "accounts_accessible": 3, "accounts_scanned": 3, "posts_scanned": 5, "processed_media": 5, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-21", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-08", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } }, "baseline_votes_2026": { "low": 8886, "base": 11354, "high": 12835 }, "ground_integration_note": "Final scenario = baseline scenario + observed Ground Vote Uplift; Ground evidence is separately modelled and labelled provisional." }, { "formal_name": "Debbie Tablotney", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 13361, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 13243, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 13361, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 38.1, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 16198, "base": 20697, "high": 23397 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Debbie Tablotney's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (38.1%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 107, "formal_name": "Debbie Tablotney", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Donna Sargent", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 13855, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 15947, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 13855, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 39.5, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 16793, "base": 21458, "high": 24257 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Donna Sargent's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (39.5%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 95, "formal_name": "Donna Sargent", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 0, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 0.0 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 8, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.41, "sources": [ { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DdAKuEwBbzW/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcP4nFIlGm5/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcPMpJ6B68w/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc4-2ktzI8d/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc1g4I8vHOm/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dc9C5Z6zv9C/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/DcRKEjvFMpu/" }, { "platform": "instagram", "url": "https://www.instagram.com/p/Dcv1XpKzYht/" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 3, "accounts_visited": 3, "accounts_accessible": 2, "accounts_scanned": 2, "posts_scanned": 8, "processed_media": 8, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-22", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-09-07", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "MEDIUM" } }, "baseline_votes_2026": { "low": 16793, "base": 21458, "high": 24257 }, "ground_integration_note": "Final scenario = baseline scenario + observed Ground Vote Uplift; Ground evidence is separately modelled and labelled provisional." }, { "formal_name": "Heather Larson", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 13475, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 13258, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 13475, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 38.4, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 16326, "base": 20860, "high": 23581 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Heather Larson's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (38.4%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 68, "formal_name": "Heather Larson", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 1, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Helen Quan", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 51, "formal_name": "Helen Quan", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "observed", "ground_activity_index": 0, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": 0.0 }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 1, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": { "RC": 0.0, "RE": 0.0, "RS": 0.0 }, "unlocated_ece": 0.0, "ece": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "ground_vote_uplift": { "low": 0.0, "base": 0.0, "high": 0.0 }, "evidence_confidence": 0.3, "sources": [ { "platform": "facebook", "url": "https://www.facebook.com/HelenQuan2026" } ], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 1, "accounts_accessible": 1, "accounts_scanned": 1, "posts_scanned": 1, "processed_media": 1, "terminal_blocked_media": 11, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": "2026-08-07", "latest_post_scanned": "2026-08-07", "last_scan_at": "2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00", "browser_backfill_completed": true, "data_coverage": "HIGH" } } }, { "formal_name": "Hongyun Chen", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 129, "formal_name": "Hongyun Chen", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "John Zhang", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 128, "formal_name": "John Zhang", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Jordan Oye", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 120, "formal_name": "Jordan Oye", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Kay Hale", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 8032, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "bc-provincial-2020", "date": "2020-10-24", "district": "Richmond-Queensborough", "party": "Conservative Party", "votes": 1108, "valid_votes": 19738 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 8032, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 22.9, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 9736, "base": 12440, "high": 14063 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Kay Hale's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (22.9%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 108, "formal_name": "Kay Hale", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Ken Hamaguchi", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2022", "date": "2022-10-15", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 15909, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 35093 }, { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "School Trustee", "votes": 17196, "elected": true, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": 15909, "historical_ballot_support_percent": 45.3, "model_status": "historical_baseline", "confidence": "low", "projected_votes_2026": { "low": 19259, "base": 24609, "high": 27819 }, "vote_projection_note": "Flat-share scenario: holds Ken Hamaguchi's most recent municipal ballot-support rate (45.3%) constant and scales it to the estimated 2026 ballot volume under each turnout scenario. It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 105, "formal_name": "Ken Hamaguchi", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Kiana Dashtbazi", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 104, "formal_name": "Kiana Dashtbazi", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Lawrence Chen", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { "election": "richmond-municipal-2018", "date": "2018-10-20", "office": "Mayor", "votes": 1260, "elected": false, "ballots_cast": 48412 } ], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 60, "formal_name": "Lawrence Chen", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, 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"insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Nancy Williams", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 109, "formal_name": "Nancy Williams", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], 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"insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Rod Belleza", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [ { 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It does not model a changed candidate field, incumbency, or campaign dynamics.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 119, "formal_name": "Sandra Nixon", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 2, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Sophia Woo", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 97, "formal_name": "Sophia Woo", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "insufficient_social_evidence", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, 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candidate in this office, so a flat-share vote scenario cannot be computed.", "ground_campaign": { "candidate_id": 130, "formal_name": "Stefan Mladenovic", "office": "School Trustee", "model_version": "ground-v2", "data_status": "unavailable", "ground_activity_index": null, "ground_breadth": null, "ground_momentum": { "last_7_days_ece": 0.0, "previous_7_days_ece": 0.0, "last_30_days_ece": 0.0, "campaign_cumulative_ece": null }, "candidate_direct_activity": { "events": 0, "ece_base": 0.0, "share_percent": null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 0, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, 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null }, "events": 0, "in_person_events": 0, "volunteer_canvass_events": 0, "regional_ece": null, "unlocated_ece": null, "ece": null, "ground_vote_uplift": null, "evidence_confidence": null, "sources": [], "social_scan_coverage": { "accounts_known": 1, "accounts_visited": 0, "accounts_accessible": 0, "accounts_scanned": 0, "posts_scanned": 0, "processed_media": 0, "terminal_blocked_media": 0, "unprocessed_media": 0, "earliest_post_scanned": null, "latest_post_scanned": null, "last_scan_at": null, "browser_backfill_completed": false, "data_coverage": "UNAVAILABLE" } } }, { "formal_name": "Willy Sinconegue", "office": "School Trustee", "publication_status": "published_list", "historical_matches": [], "historical_baseline_votes": null, "historical_ballot_support_percent": null, "model_status": "insufficient_candidate_evidence", "confidence": "not_estimated", "projected_votes_2026": null, "vote_projection_note": "No historical municipal result for this candidate in this office, so a 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