# Richmond Election Model Status

Generated: 2026-10-27T14:08:16.604789+00:00

Public-source analysis only. No candidate is endorsed or opposed.

## Current result

The page publishes verified historical baselines, a 2026 turnout-scenario model, and a separately labelled, low-confidence external market signal for Mayor. Councillor and School Trustee vote-count scenarios are a flat-share arithmetic projection, not a poll-based forecast; Mayor has no such scenario because no 2026 candidate has run for that office before.

## Model corrections

- The September 18 withdrawal deadline has passed; the City candidate page is the final current candidate universe.
- The City published page and official profile API are out of sync.
- Polymarket includes names outside the current City system and placeholder contracts; those rows are excluded.
- No representative Richmond voter poll has been ingested; projected_votes_2026 is a flat-share arithmetic scenario, not a poll-based prediction.
- Council support rates and mayor vote shares use different denominators and are never combined.
- Turnout-rate scenarios are reasoned brackets built from Richmond's own 2011-2022 range and the 2026 open-seat context, not a statistical model fit to polling data.
- Social reach (Facebook/Instagram/X) ranks mayoral candidates in close to the opposite order of the external market signal, and is disclosed as unreliable context rather than treated as a vote proxy; it is not refreshed by the automated daily job because the source platforms block programmatic access.

## 2026 turnout scenarios

Eligible-elector base for 2026 is trend-extrapolated by compounding the City's own 2018-to-2022 back-calculated growth rate (ballots cast / official turnout %) forward one more 4-year cycle. Turnout-rate scenarios are reasoned brackets, not a statistical forecast: Low assumes participation stays near 2022's incumbent-dominated race; Base reverts to the 2014/2018 average from Richmond's last competitive mayoral races; High assumes the current open mayoral race drives turnout modestly above Richmond's historical maximum. See context_2026 in history.json for the open-seat driver and richmond_municipal_turnout_series for the source figures.

Estimated 2026 eligible electors: 157,462

| Scenario | Turnout % | Projected ballots cast |
|---|---:|---:|
| low | 27.0% | 42,515 |
| base | 34.5% | 54,324 |
| high | 39.0% | 61,410 |

## Current candidates

| Office | Formal name | Published status | Historical baseline | Projected votes 2026 (low / base / high) | External win signal |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Mayor | Alexa Loo | published_list | — | — | 0.0% |
| Mayor | Dennet "The Cat Guy" Lee | published_list | — | — | — |
| Mayor | Dickens Cheung | published_list | — | — | 0.0% |
| Mayor | Goldentiger King | published_list | — | — | — |
| Mayor | Kash Heed | published_list | — | — | 0.0% |
| Mayor | Mei Kang | published_list | — | — | 0.0% |
| Mayor | Rob Howard | published_list | — | — | 100.0% |
| Councillor | Adam Dobrer | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Adil Awan | published_list | 4,197 (12.0%) | 5,102 / 6,519 / 7,369 | — |
| Councillor | Adnan Sarwar | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Alan Lackstein | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Alex Sagert | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Alton Cheung | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Andrew Mrozowski | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Andy Hobbs | published_list | 12,760 (36.4%) | 15,475 / 19,774 / 22,353 | — |
| Councillor | Andy Z. Wang | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Antonio "Tony" Ortega | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Bob Basanti | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Carol Day | published_list | 15,737 (44.8%) | 19,047 / 24,337 / 27,512 | — |
| Councillor | Dale Bains | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Daniel Tsang | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Dennis Page | published_list | 3,005 (8.6%) | 3,656 / 4,672 / 5,281 | — |
| Councillor | Donald Flintoff | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Edward He | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Eric Yung | published_list | 7,016 (20.0%) | 8,503 / 10,865 / 12,282 | — |
| Councillor | Gary Law | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Glenda Strang | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Grace Tsang | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Hong Yan Melody Pan | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Howard Jampolsky | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Jack Chen | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Jeff Jiang | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Jenny Gonzales Mata | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Jerome Dickey | published_list | 8,797 (25.1%) | 10,671 / 13,635 / 15,414 | — |
| Councillor | Jessy Dhillon | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Jizhou William Wang | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Karen Novorr-Pezzuto | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Keefer Pelech | published_list | 5,993 (17.1%) | 7,270 / 9,289 / 10,501 | — |
| Councillor | Kenny Chiu | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Kevin Lai | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Kevin Lainchbury | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Laura Gillanders | published_list | 10,817 (30.8%) | 13,095 / 16,732 / 18,914 | — |
| Councillor | Lisa Phillips | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Louis Huang | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Mario Cruz | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Melissa Zhang | published_list | 5,936 (16.9%) | 7,185 / 9,181 / 10,378 | — |
| Councillor | Michael Lok | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Michael Wolfe | published_list | 12,953 (36.9%) | 15,688 / 20,046 / 22,660 | — |
| Councillor | Mike Gill | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Milan Kljajic | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Milly Yee | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Oday Brahem | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Pak Hing (Ben) Lee | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Romeo Bicego | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Sam Wang | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Sheldon Starrett | published_list | 5,573 (15.9%) | 6,760 / 8,638 / 9,764 | — |
| Councillor | Shelley Leonhardt | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Tamás Revóczi | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Thomas Leung | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Tim Fan | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Vincent Li | published_list | — | — | — |
| Councillor | Wallace Pong | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Aithan Kang | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Alice Wong | published_list | 13,769 (39.2%) | 16,666 / 21,295 / 24,073 | — |
| School Trustee | Ausha Kang | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Bill Mok | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Calvin Dang | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Danny Chang | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | David Yang | published_list | 12,099 (34.5%) | 14,668 / 18,742 / 21,186 | — |
| School Trustee | Dean Billings | published_list | 7,331 (20.9%) | 8,886 / 11,354 / 12,836 | — |
| School Trustee | Debbie Tablotney | published_list | 13,361 (38.1%) | 16,198 / 20,697 / 23,397 | — |
| School Trustee | Donna Sargent | published_list | 13,855 (39.5%) | 16,793 / 21,458 / 24,257 | — |
| School Trustee | Heather Larson | published_list | 13,475 (38.4%) | 16,326 / 20,860 / 23,581 | — |
| School Trustee | Helen Quan | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Hongyun Chen | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | John Zhang | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Jordan Oye | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Kay Hale | published_list | 8,032 (22.9%) | 9,736 / 12,440 / 14,063 | — |
| School Trustee | Ken Hamaguchi | published_list | 15,909 (45.3%) | 19,259 / 24,609 / 27,819 | — |
| School Trustee | Kiana Dashtbazi | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Lawrence Chen | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Martin Li | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Nancy Williams | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Phyllis Tang | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Rod Belleza | published_list | 11,304 (32.2%) | 13,690 / 17,492 / 19,774 | — |
| School Trustee | Sandra Nixon | published_list | 16,567 (34.2%) | 14,540 / 18,579 / 21,002 | — |
| School Trustee | Sophia Woo | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Stefan Mladenovic | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Vivien Lee | published_list | — | — | — |
| School Trustee | Willy Sinconegue | published_list | — | — | — |